You may be mistaken if you believe that once infected with Covid-19, you will be immune. People who have been infected with Covid can be reinfected within four months, according to new models that do not include vaccines or masks, according to Nature.
The average risk of reinfection climbs to roughly 5% four months following the initial infection. According to the findings, the risk can increase by up to 50% in 17 months. Natural immunity against common-cold coronaviruses, on the other hand, was shown to last less than half as long.
The predictions are based on SARS-genetic CoV-2’s links with other coronaviruses.
“Immunity lasts only a few days. Even if you’ve been sick, you should still get vaccinated “According to Jeffrey Townsend, a bioinformatician at Yale School of Public Health in New Haven, Connecticut,
While more research will be needed in the next months and years to determine how long natural immunity lasts, Townsend believes it is not necessary to “wait for that.”
The scientists wanted to know how antibody levels from a previous infection affect the likelihood of reinfection in order to determine the durability of SARS-CoV-2 protection.
To create a viral family tree, they incorporated genomic data from SARS-CoV-2, three endemic coronaviruses that cause the common cold, and the closely related coronaviruses SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV.
They used this to model how viral characteristics have changed throughout time. These qualities were combined to offer an estimate of the drop in antibody levels following SARS-CoV-2 infection, as well as other factors needed to determine the risk of reinfection.
According to Townsend, the findings show that Covid-19 would likely move from a pandemic to endemic disease.
Many questions remain unanswered, including the severity of sickness if someone is re-infected. Individuals can also differ greatly in their vulnerability to reinfection and, if reinfected, their illness course, including whether or not they would develop long Covid, according to the paper.
